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IMF sees a glimmer of hope for the global economy

There may be a glimmer of hope on the horizon, as according to the International Monetary Fund, the world economy, while dire, may not be quite as bleak as it was June.

The IMF was signalling on Thursday that it may lift its forecast for the global economic outlook, when it is released on October 13.

But the rationale for the improvement is due mainly to the Chinese economy, the first to be hit by the coronavirus, and also the first to emerge from it. Some advanced economies were also showing signs of improvement.

IMF chart of its June outlook

“The recent incoming data suggests that the outlook may be somewhat less dire than at the time of the (World Economic Outlook) update on June 24 with parts of the global economy beginning to turn the corner,” a spokesman for the IMF said.

“The outlook remains very challenging,” he noted, however, with emerging markets other than China facing a “precarious” situation due to the coronavirus.

But the overall global outlook remains challenging, with the impact of the pandemic hitting many economic sectors.

The IMF’s outlook in June forecast that the global economy would decrease by 4.9 percent — even worse than the three percent decline predicted in April.

Developing countries could be the hardest hit.

“Taken together, we are very concerned that this crisis will reverse the gains in poverty reduction that have been made in recent years, and roll back progress that has been made toward the Sustainable Development Goals,” the IMF spokesman said.

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